China Residential Real Estate Market By Property Type (Residential, Villas and Townhouses, Commercial, Mass-market Housing), By Demographic (First-time Homebuyers, Upgrader Buyers, Investment Buyers), By Development Stage (New Construction, Secondary Market), And Region For 2024-2031

China Residential Real Estate Market Valuation – 2024-2031

In Chinese culture, owning property is deeply rooted as a symbol of wealth, stability, and social status, driving consistent demand for residential real estate. Thus, the cultural emphasis on homeownership surged the growth of market size surpassing USD 570000 Million in 2023 to reach the valuation of USD 792166 Million by 2031.

Residential properties have traditionally been perceived as a secure and lucrative investment option, attracting significant interest from both domestic and international investors. Thus, real estate is a safe investment that enables the market to grow at a CAGR of 4.2% from 2024 to 2031.

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China Residential Real Estate Market: Definition/ Overview

Residential real estate refers to properties designed specifically for individuals or families to live in, offering a broad spectrum of housing options that cater to various lifestyles, preferences, and financial situations. This category includes several types of properties, each with distinct advantages based on size, location, and amenities. Condominiums (Condos) are individual units within larger buildings or complexes, often offering shared amenities like gyms, pools, and communal spaces, making them ideal for those seeking a low-maintenance, urban lifestyle.

Townhouses are multi-level homes attached to neighboring units, providing the benefits of both space and privacy while maintaining a compact footprint, often with more room than apartments but less than detached homes. Apartments are rental units within a larger building or complex, offering flexibility and often situated in urban areas, making them suitable for renters or individuals seeking shorter-term living arrangements.

Duplexes consist of two separate units within a single building, typically with separate entrances, offering the option for multi-generational living or rental income. Multi-family homes are structures with multiple living units, offering opportunities for larger households or potential rental income, ideal for investors or families seeking flexibility. Ultimately, residential real estate encompasses any property used as a primary residence, providing a diverse range of housing solutions to meet the needs of different individuals and families.

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What will the Continuous Urbanization and Migration do to China’s Residential Real Estate Market?

China’s rapid urbanization and migration trends are significant drivers of the residential real estate market. As millions of people continue to move from rural areas to urban centers in search of better employment and living conditions, the demand for residential properties, including apartments, condos, and single-family homes, is steadily increasing. China’s urbanization rate reached 65.2% in 2022, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The urban population increased by 12.5 million people in 2022. Tier-2 cities experienced a 15.3% increase in housing demand during 2022. 120 million new urban residents are expected by 2030 according to China’s State Council

With China’s growing economy, household incomes have risen, contributing to the expansion of the middle class. As people’s purchasing power increases, there is a stronger demand for higher-quality housing, particularly in urban areas where housing is seen as both a necessity and an investment. This upward shift in income levels allows more individuals and families to buy their own homes, driving sales in the residential real estate sector. Average urban disposable income increased by 5.2% in 2022 to RMB 47,412. Middle-class households reached 400 million in 2022, up 8.5% from 2020. The homeownership rate among middle-class families increased to 82% in 2022. First-time homebuyers aged 25-35 accounted for 42% of purchases in 2022.

How the Strict Government Regulations and Controls Impede the Growth of China Residential Real Estate Market?

The Chinese government has implemented a series of stringent regulations and controls aimed at cooling down the residential real estate market and preventing speculation. These include measures such as restrictions on property purchases, limits on mortgage lending, and caps on housing prices in certain cities. While these regulations are designed to promote affordability and ensure sustainable market growth, they also restrict demand, especially in major urban centers where price growth has been most pronounced. The “Three Red Lines” policy restricted borrowing for 30% of major developers in 2022. Property purchase restrictions affected 48 major cities by 2022. Mortgage rates for second homes increased to 5.4% in 2022. Home purchase limitations affected 65% of tier-1 and tier-2 cities by 2023

Many real estate developers in China face significant financial pressure, particularly as a result of the government’s crackdown on excessive borrowing and debt accumulation in the sector. The tightening of credit conditions and increasing scrutiny of developers’ financial practices have led to financial instability for some large players in the market, causing project delays, a slowdown in new construction, and an overall decline in market activity. This financial stress among developers also raises concerns about the completion of housing projects, further dampening consumer confidence and affecting the flow of new properties into the market. Developer debt reached RMB 18.4 trillion in 2022, according to the People’s Bank of China. 22 major developers reported default risks in 2022. Construction delays affected 230 million square meters of projects in 2022. Developer funding from banks decreased by 28% in 2022 compared to 2021.

Category-Wise Acumens

Will the Robust Urbanization and Migration of Cities Surge the Growth of the Residential Segment?

The residential segment dominates in the Chinese residential real estate market driven by urbanization and migration to cities. As China continues its rapid urbanization, millions of people migrate from rural areas to cities in search of better job opportunities, education, and quality of life. This massive influx of people into urban centers increases the demand for residential properties. Apartments, condominiums, and townhouses, being highly adaptable to urban environments, have become the preferred housing options for many.

The expansion of China’s middle class has been a major catalyst for the demand for residential properties. As incomes rise, more individuals and families can afford homeownership, particularly in tier-one and tier-two cities. The growing disposable income allows for greater purchasing power, which has driven both the demand for residential housing and the upgrading of living standards.

The Chinese government has implemented several policies to support homeownership, such as subsidies for first-time buyers, favorable mortgage lending terms, and the construction of affordable housing. These measures not only stimulate demand for residential properties but also help make homeownership more accessible to a broader segment of the population, fueling the growth of apartments, condominiums, and townhouses.

How do the Established Infrastructure and Amenities Foster the Growth of China’s Residential Real Estate Market?

The secondary market segment dominates the Chinese residential real estate market owing to the established infrastructure and amenities. Resale properties in well-established neighborhoods benefit from developed infrastructure, including transportation, schools, healthcare, and recreational facilities. These areas are highly sought after because they offer a high quality of life and convenient access to essential services. Buyers are often willing to pay a premium for properties located in these established communities, making the secondary market more attractive.

As the real estate market matures, resale properties tend to experience price appreciation, especially in high-demand cities. Investors are drawn to the secondary market because they can purchase properties at competitive prices and benefit from potential capital gains as the value of the property increases over time. The opportunity for long-term price growth makes resale properties a lucrative investment option.

The secondary market offers a broader range of property options compared to new builds, catering to different buyer preferences and budgets. Buyers have more choices in terms of size, layout, and location, making it easier to find a property that meets their specific needs.

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Country/Region-wise Acumens

How the Urbanization and Migration Patterns Accelerate the Growth of China’s Residential Real Estate Market?

China’s rapid urbanization has been a major driver of its dominance in the residential real estate market. The ongoing migration of people from rural areas to cities in search of better employment opportunities, education, and healthcare has created a high demand for residential properties. Major urban centers like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen continue to expand, prompting the construction of a variety of housing options, from affordable apartments to high-end condominiums. China’s urbanization rate reached 64.7% in 2022, up from 60.6% in 2019, bringing approximately 12 million new urban residents annually. Urban housing demand has been concentrated in 70 major cities that account for roughly 65% of commercial housing sales.

The Chinese government plays a pivotal role in shaping the residential real estate market through various policy measures. These include incentives for first-time homebuyers, government-backed housing projects, subsidies for low-income households, and tightening of regulations to curb speculation. The government’s efforts to regulate and support the real estate sector help stabilize market dynamics, ensuring steady growth and accessibility for a wide range of buyers. In 2022, over 450 real estate policies were introduced across China, including, lowered mortgage rates (First-home buyers saw rates drop to 4.1% in select cities). Home purchase restrictions relaxed in over 80 cities by end-2022.

China’s changing demographics, characterized by a growing middle class, rising disposable incomes, and evolving household formation patterns, also contribute to the market’s dominance. As more young people enter the workforce and establish their households, the demand for residential properties increases. At the same time, smaller households and nuclear families are becoming more prevalent, creating demand for diverse housing types such as apartments, condominiums, and townhouses. Marriage rates influence housing demand, 7.643 million marriages registered in 2021. China’s middle-class population reached approximately 400 million in 2022. Average household size decreased to 2.62 persons in 2021, driving demand for smaller units.

Competitive Landscape

China’s Residential Real Estate Market is highly competitive, with a diverse range of players, including state-owned enterprises, private developers, and foreign investors. Chinese residential real estate market still offers significant opportunities for players who can adapt to changing market conditions and leverage emerging trends, such as smart homes, green buildings, and rental housing.

The organizations are focusing on innovating their product line to serve the vast population in diverse regions. Some of the prominent players operating in the China residential real estate market include:

Country Garden Holdings, Evergrande, Vanke, Sunac China, Shimao Group, China Overseas Land & Investment, Longfor Group.

Latest Developments:

• In March 2020, Evergrande announced the launch of its “Online Real Estate” portal despite COVID-19 regulations.
• In June 2020, Vanke announced the launch of “robot salesrooms” for contactless property viewing.
• In September 2020, Sunac China announced the acquisition of over 100 distressed projects from smaller developers.
• In March 2021, Shimao Group announced a strategic agreement with Xiaomi to develop smart houses.

Report Scope

China Residential Real Estate Market, By Category

Property Type:

• Residential
• Villas and Townhouse
• Commercial
• Mass-market Housing

Demographic:

• First-time Homebuyers
• Upgrader Buyers
• Investment Buyers

Development Stage:

• New Construction
• Secondary Market

Region:

• China

Research Methodology of Verified Market Research:

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Reasons to Purchase this Report

• Qualitative and quantitative analysis of the market based on segmentation involving both economic as well as non-economic factors
• Provision of market value (USD Billion) data for each segment and sub-segment
• Indicates the region and segment that is expected to witness the fastest growth as well as to dominate the market
• Analysis by geography highlighting the consumption of the product/service in the region as well as indicating the factors that are affecting the market within each region
• Competitive landscape which incorporates the market ranking of the major players, along with new service/product launches, partnerships, business expansions and acquisitions in the past five years of companies profiled
• Extensive company profiles comprising of company overview, company insights, product benchmarking and SWOT analysis for the major market players
• The current as well as the future market outlook of the industry with respect to recent developments (which involve growth opportunities and drivers as well as challenges and restraints of both emerging as well as developed regions
• Includes an in-depth analysis of the market of various perspectives through Porter’s five forces analysis
• Provides insight into the market through Value Chain
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